UPDATE TO THE UPDATE: (November 11, 2023)
A quick and short update to this post (November 14, 2023). It looks like Speaker Johnson might be open to working with Democrats much to the chagrin of the 8 hard-right Republicans. So maybe the idea below may not be appropriate. With that said, I’ll just leave it. I wonder if those 8 will try to remove their Speaker again. We could be in an endless loop for a while. I’ll make this the last update. Hopefully, everything can be worked out for the better of the nation, and the nonsense of these 8 will be forgotten, like children at the “Kids Table” during Thanksgiving dinner.
As I anticipated in the last update, we’re not out of the woods yet. Time is ticking, and there is no clear solution for government funding by November 17th. Even before we got to this point, I’ve already predicted that there will be a government shutdown. Now with recent elections showing an overwhelming rush away from Republican governors and state politicians, a relatively normal person might think the House Republicans – at least the 8 – 12 hard-right ones – would get the message that it is time to actually work things out – meaning some compromises. Let’s remember that our national government was created specifically so that one side doesn’t get EVERYTHING they want. The basis of Democracy is to seek compromises so that all can participate in the governing of the nation. Again, adding it all up (the Speaker fiasco and recent elections), you would think it obvious that it would be political “suicide” for the Republicans to allow another government shutdown – a thought shared by even staunch Republicans I’ve spoken to. However, I remind them, and you, that words like “normal,” “logical,” or “reasonable” can’t be counted on in this current environment. Those 8 – 12 hard-right Republicans have already pushed us into uncharted territory unthinkable until now.
So, I still think a shutdown is inevitable. The question is “what can be done about it?” I still think the “uncomfortable options” I disused in the original post below are on the table. For the most part, the majority of the House Republicans are relatively sane and reasonable, and I know they’ve gotten the message from the recent elections. If they have any desire to try to turn things around for the Republican Party, they will have to make some uncomfortable decisions. However, they will be impeded by the new Speaker of the House of which they acquiesced to be elected. As a result, I’ve added a new option that would be available to them to try to “right the ship.” Well, it is kind of a derivation of one of the original options.
A New Option: Get a New Speaker – but with a little help
If Speaker Johnson remains beholden to the hard-right, Trump supported 8 – 12 Republicans, then there will be no government funding passed and there will be a government shutdown. So, the “sane” Republicans can borrow a page out of their playbook – oust the current Speaker and get a new one. Obviously, there are some major caveats.
First, there is the public sentiment or opinion of the Republicans to replace their Speaker, AGAIN, especially so soon after the first time. But hell, they made history already, might as well keep going. Like so many things in our nation’s past, once you break the seal on something historic, it’s much easier to do that same thing a second time.
Second, and this goes back to the derivation of one of the original options, there would be no way for a new Speaker to be elected without the help of the Democrats. Again, working with the Democrats to elect a new Speaker would figuratively be the end of the Republicans as the “true” majority of the House. Of course, some might consider such a move to also be political “suicide.” However, what could be more of statement to recognize that mistakes were made (including attaching their Party’s cart to Trump) and that they need to regain their previous mantel of “getting things done” rather than just being an impediment to governing and progress. Kind of like, “ripping off the band-aide quickly.”
As a result, I’m sure the Democrats wouldn’t budge until all Impeachment proceedings of Biden were stopped. Of course they would still hold some “sway” on what can be passed, but considering how far the pendulum has swung to the Right, maybe it’s time for it to swing a little back towards the middle. If you look at the history of Congress, it is a continuous cycle of the “pendulum” swinging from one side to the other – always in search of an equilibrium. If it swings too far in one direction or for too long, bad things start to happen – i.e. racism, socialism, and, I don’t know, storming our own Nation’s Capitol and threatening the lives of Members of Congress.
So again, it’s not pretty and not relatively clean, but maybe one of these options, or derivations there-of, could help “right the ship” to sail towards the next turbulent waters. Hopefully, we can maintain some of this motivation to govern together as momentum to more easily navigate future problems.
PREVIOUS UPDATE: (October 27, 2023)
Well it looks like a crisis has been averted – for now. There is a new Republican Speaker of the House, Rep. Mike Johnson from Louisiana. We’ll see how things go. I would have said that the true test will come when they try passing any spending measures, but it likely won’t be any different than in past Congresses. They’ve all been a perpetual game of “kick the can down the road.”
I’ll leave the rest of my post below unchanged. Not to be a “doomsayer” or anything (nor would I be a fortune teller), but something tells me from the way this all played out that it’s not time for a breath of relief yet. There are certainly leagues of troubled waters ahead.
ORIGINAL POST: (October 19, 2023)
While I was drafting this piece, news broke twice about the current quest for a Speaker of the US House of Representatives. First, that they would allow the current “Acting” Speaker of the House some additional powers until January. Then a few hours later, news broke that the idea had been scraped. This gives me more confidence about what I’ve written below [unfortunately]. I’ll try to keep my comments as updated as possible as things happen.
Before now, what is currently happening in the House of Representatives is a situation which was never meant to really happen – or at least never dreamed it would actually happen. While the possibility was always there because the House rules allowed for a “No Confidence” vote on the Speaker of the House, it was always just a “let’s include this thing for now to appease a few guys, but let’s be real, it will never actually happen or be successful.” There were a few “close calls” over the years (twice I believe), but each time the then sitting-Speaker was able to resolve matters and hold onto his gavel. Leave it to the current “In-Disarray” Republican Party to be the first in history to bestow upon itself such a dubious honor. [Disclosure: I’ve always been a moderate Republican – more or less. Seeing how things are going these days, I might need to rethink the whole thing. Could there ever be a viable 3rd party? A possible discussion for another time.]
After serving almost 10 years as a senior legislative staffer in both the Senate and the House, I thought I had successfully severed my connection to politics. However, considering the “unprecedentedness” [I know it is not a word but who cares at this point] of this situation, I wanted to chime in. So, here I go.
Bottomline, based on what I’ve seen so far and the position of the “8” or so Republican headless horseman which have corralled us into this current predicament, I see only two ways this debacle could be fully resolved and the ship of Congress could once again set sail through turbulent waters. As mentioned above, there could be another lingering option that the Speaker Pro Temp, Rep. Patrick McHenry (a.k.a. Acting Speaker), might be given limited powers of the Speaker’s gavel through January 2024. It was scrapped but if it should come back, I think it’s best to call it what it is – just another “kicking the can down the road” situation – a common theme with Congress. It is unlikely much will change between now and then – barring any “come-to-Jesus” moments for the stalwart “8” Republicans or should any of the competent House Republicans buckle under the pressure from the right to join the “8,” which sadly I think is more of a possibility.
Granted, there is always the possibility the Republicans actually decide to back one of its Members, but I’ll file that on the “as-if” shelf.
So, back to the two available options which could put all this behind us. Without question, neither are without pain nor without potential future suffering for any faction of Republicans. Neither do I think that they could actually happen in reality as you’ll understand when you see the “caveats.” Nonetheless, I think these are the only two possible scenarios which could get things moving in the House before the next cycle of elections. Although, even with the elections we could still be in the same sinking boat if not enough current House seats change parties or not enough reasonable people get elected. That’s much further down the road, so it doesn’t matter now [sure].
OPTION ONE: Oust the “8” Republicans with “Expulsion Resolutions.”
Yes, the House (and Senate for that matter) could decide to vote out a few of its own Members. More importantly, this option comes straight from our Constitution, the “Expulsion Clause” (U.S. Const. art. I, Sect. 5, cl. 2), and interestingly enough, it has happened about three times in history. Although, the underlying justifications for those previous instances were based on legal or ethical charges. However, a legal and an ethical inditement is not actually required for the House to expel its own. The actual language in the Constitution leaves the requirements to take such action pretty wide open. The Constitution authorizes each House of Congress to take three actions: determine its own rules, punish its own Members for misconduct, and to expel a Member with a two thirds vote. Even though the different parties have set aside “expulsion” for instances related to legal or ethical conduct, there is no set requirement for it. The parties can change that with just a majority of their own party Members.
Expulsion Clause of the Constitution
Each House may determine the Rules of its Proceedings, punish its Members for disorderly Behavior, and, with the Concurrence of two thirds, expel a Member. (U.S. Const. art. I, Sect. 5, cl. 2)
So, member expulsions could happen just because a few are said to be keeping the House from doing its business. I said it was an option, but it comes with many heavy caveats.
First, if these Members were successfully expelled, special elections would have to be called in their home districts to fill the newly vacated seats. At best, special elections could happen within about 49 days (basically the running average in these situations). So, obviously it wouldn’t be a quick resolution to all the House problems – at least in this situation.
Second, special elections raise the possibility that the Republicans could lose those seats to Democrats. Also, if enough are lost, the Republicans could lose Majority of the House, especially depending on what happens with other currently vacant seats.
Third, let us not forget that the Republican Members which voted for expelling the “8” could face repercussions from the far, far right.
OPTION TWO: “A” Republican makes a deal with House Democrats for enough votes to ascend to the House Speakership.
Again, there are a few little caveats. First, this wouldn’t be one Republican on his/her own. Enough of the Republican caucus, outside of the “8,” would have to willingly opt for this path while knowing that far-right and maybe even traditional Republicans would scream “bloody-murder” and chant “off with their heads” – figuratively and literally (unfortunately). Or, the unthinkable could happen [sure, why not?], and everyone was relatively okay with it because reason might persist that the whole Republican Party shouldn’t be governed by a crazy few following the drum beat of a flailing Donald Trump.
Unfortunately, given all the current bad social behavior and illogical determination to bring physical violence against members in public service, not to mention for our nation’s Capitol, it is almost certain that some would use this deal as “justification” to harm those Republicans who participated in it. At the least, they would make the Member’s life a “living hell” and attempt to bring their political career to an end. But let’s be real, if a Republican did go through with this type of deal, all they would be “guilty of” is working with a few Democrats to make the House functional again – relatively.
Second, by reaching an agreement with Democrats to seat a Republican Speaker, it would mean the Republicans had ceded the “full spoils” of being the Majority. Of course technically, Republicans would be the majority, but they almost certainly would need to get a “hall pass” from Democrats before they could bring anything to the floor for a vote or for any other significant Committee undertakings.
Like I said, to get out of this debacle there aren’t any “easy” solutions nor are they ones many would have the stomach, or “courage,” to take. Regardless, these would be the only two ways to get the House working again prior to the next cycle of elections. Then again, the election results could send the same type of people up to the Hill for another round of deja vu. Although, I guess Republicans could decide to stick with Rep. McHenry as “Acting” Speaker until the next election, but that would basically put the House on “cruise control,” which might be too boring for some. Then the only way for disgruntled Republican Members to make waves would be speeches on the House floor, which no one actually listens to or take that serious, or to bang “pots-n-pans” in social media and Fox, which happens anyway so it doesn’t change anything.
As it is and even with these options, the House Republicans, and party as a whole, have allowed themselves to be pushed into a seat at the table for another round of “Russian Roulette,” and it’s its turn, again, to see if the chamber of the barrel is empty or not. Fingers crossed! :-O